During the last quarter of 2024, the US economy grew at an annual rate of 2.3%, according to the Bureau of Economic Analysis. This expansion was below the expected 2.6% and represented a slowdown from the 3.1% increase seen in the previous quarter.
Main Factors Contributing to Economic Expansion
Growth in the fourth quarter was mainly fueled by a rise in consumer spending and government outlays. As a major factor of the Gross Domestic Product (GDP), consumer spending stayed strong, indicating continued household consumption. Government outlays also played a positive role, with significant boosts in federal and state spending.
Analysis Compared to Earlier Quarters
The 2.3% growth in the fourth quarter marks the slowest quarterly increase since 2018, a time when the economy expanded by 0.6% in that same period. Annually, the economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, just under the 2.9% expansion noted in 2023.
The 2.3% growth rate in Q4 represents the slowest quarterly expansion since 2018, when the economy grew by 0.6% in the fourth quarter. On an annual basis, the economy grew by 2.8% in 2024, slightly below the 2.9% growth recorded in 2023.
Factors Contributing to the Slowdown
- Reduction in Investment: A downturn in investment activities partially counteracted the benefits from consumer and government expenditure.
- Trade Factors: Imports saw a decline in this time frame, which, though a negative in GDP calculation, suggests possible changes in local demand and global supply chain modifications.
Presiones Inflacionarias e Implicaciones Políticas
La inflación persistente sigue siendo motivo de preocupación, con el Índice de Precios al Consumidor (IPC) subiendo a 2.9% en diciembre de 2024. Este aumento en la inflación ha llevado a los economistas a modificar sus pronósticos, esperando que las presiones sobre los precios continúen el próximo año. La Reserva Federal se enfrenta al desafío de equilibrar los esfuerzos para controlar la inflación sin frenar el crecimiento económico.
Summary of the Labor Market
Labor Market Overview
Perspectivas para 2025
Observing the future, the economic forecast for 2025 offers a varied scenario:
Looking ahead, the economic outlook for 2025 presents a mixed picture:
- Growth Projections: The Congressional Budget Office (CBO) projects a moderation in economic growth, with GDP expected to increase by 1.9% in 2025, down from an estimated 2.3% in 2024.
- cbo.gov
- Inflation Expectations: Economists anticipate that inflation will remain above the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, influenced by factors such as ongoing supply chain disruptions and policy decisions.
- reuters.com
- Policy Considerations: Proposed tariffs and stricter immigration policies could exert additional inflationary pressures and impact labor market dynamics, necessitating careful monitoring and policy adjustments.
